Last updated: November 21, 2024, 1:00 a.m.

• November 5, 2024, 6:30 p.m.: Off on a Tangent live election coverage is starting!
  • Polls in Virginia are scheduled to close at 7:00 p.m. ET; anybody in line by then can vote.
  • I call winners using a proprietary method that incorporates official returns, exit poll data, media calls, and other sources. In presidential races, I use a variant of this method to call each state, and call the race when a candidate reaches a 270-elector majority.
  • Live returns for the races I’m following are based on Virginia Department of Elections data feeds. I also monitor various secondary sources, so it is sometimes possible to call a race before returns are displayed.
  • My live coverage will continue at least until all the races I’m following have been called, or 1:00 a.m., whichever comes first. Updates will continue as time permits until the Virginia results certified.
• 7:02 p.m.: Polls are closing in Virginia and other states. Let the fun begin.
• 7:36 p.m.: Several states are called (no surprises), and Virginia results are starting to trickle in.
• 7:55 p.m.: Polls in sixteen states and the District of Columbia close at 8:00 p.m., so there’s a good chance we’ll have a bunch of calls coming in soon. So far, no “swing states” can be called.
• 8:26 p.m.: Tangent call: The Virginia Property Tax Amendment has passed.
• 8:40 p.m.: Tangent call: The Loudoun County Public Safety Bond Referendum has passed.
• 8:44 p.m.: Tangent call: The Loudoun County Transportation Bond Referendum has passed.
• 8:53 p.m.: Another big batch of states’ polls close at 9:00 p.m. and some more calls should be coming. Several “swing states” whose polls already closed remain too close to call.
• 8:55 p.m.: Tangent call: The Loudoun County Parks and Recreation Bond Referendum has passed.
• 9:10 p.m.: Tangent call: The Loudoun County School Bond Referendum has passed.
• 10:28 p.m.: Tangent call: Virginia Senator Suhas Subramanyam (D-32nd) has been elected to represent Virginia’s 10th District in the U.S. House of Representatives.
• 10:38 p.m.: Tangent call: Incumbent Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) has been reelected.
• 11:50 p.m.: Polls are closed in all states except Alaska and Hawaii. Here’s where we stand right now:
  • Former President Donald Trump (R) appears to be outperforming his polling, and election night predictors like the New York Times “needle” and public betting markets now consider it likely (but not guaranteed) that Trump will defeat Vice President Kamala Harris (D).
  • In the U.S. Senate, the Republican Party is all-but certain to reach at least a 50/50 tie, and is very likely to win an outright majority of at least 51 seats.
  • It is not yet clear which party will win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
• 11:53 p.m.: Tangent call: Vice President Kamala Harris (D) has won Virginia’s presidential ballot and will be awarded the state’s thirteen electoral votes.
• November 6, 2024, 1:13 a.m.: The Republican Party will gain an outright majority of at least 51 seats in the U.S. Senate.
• 1:24 a.m.: Decision Desk HQ is now projecting a Trump win, and the New York Times “needle” now estimates Trump has a greater than 95% chance of winning. Off on a Tangent cannot yet project a winner, but I agree it is likely Trump will win.
• 1:48 a.m.: Fox News is the first major television news outlet to project a Trump win.
• 2:09 a.m.: With a win in Pennsylvania, Trump is now on the verge of victory with 267 electors. If he wins any one of the remaining uncalled states, he will reach the necessary 270-elector majority.
• 2:24 a.m.: Tangent call: Former President Donald Trump (R) has been elected President of the United States with an electoral majority of at least 277. Trump will be only the second president to be elected to two non-consecutive terms.
• 2:31 a.m.: Trump is addressing supporters from his campaign headquarters in West Palm Beach, Florida. He declared victory and thanked the American people for their votes and promised to “fight for you, and your family, and your future.”
• 2:36 a.m.: The new Vice President-elect of the United States, J.D. Vance (R), is younger than me. I don’t know how I feel about that.
• 2:56 a.m.: Harris will not address her supporters this evening, and has not conceded defeat. Decision Desk HQ and Fox News called the race for Trump, but most other media outlets, including the Associated Press, still have him just short of the necessary 270-elector majority.
• 3:07 a.m.: Trump appears to have made significant gains since the last election with black and Latino voters, especially among black and Latino men. Exit polling seems to indicate that Trump nearly doubled his share of the black vote in some states.
• 3:20 a.m.: All the races I’m following are now called and I am ending my live coverage for the evening. I will continue to update this post with election updates as time permits until the results are certified, so keep checking back! A few notes:
  • Four states are still too-close-to-call: Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada. Trump is currently ahead in all four of them. If his leads hold, the electoral count will be 312-226.
  • The U.S. Senate stands at 51-42 for the Republicans, with seven seats still too close to call. Republican candidates lead in six of those seven races, suggesting a possible outcome of 57-43 for the Republicans.
  • The U.S. House stands at 192-173 for the Republicans with seventy seats still too close to call. Republicans are outperforming the polls and are favored to maintain a majority, but Democrats could still come out ahead.
  • Thanks for tuning in!
• 10:49 a.m.: Morning updates:
  • I’ve called Alaska for Trump, which puts his electoral count at 280 to Harris’s 226. Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada are still too close to call, but Trump is leading in all three. Those leads are likely to hold, so I think the final result will probably be 312-226.
  • Trump appears to have won an outright majority of the popular vote—around 51% to Harris’s 48%. We do not elect presidents by popular vote, but it can serve as a rough indicator of public sentiment. A popular vote win tends to strengthen a president’s political “mandate,” while a loss tends to weaken it.
  • Most major media outlets called the race for Trump overnight, including the Associated Press. Harris has apparently not yet called Trump to concede, but will reportedly do so soon. She will address the nation later today.
  • The U.S. Senate is now at a 52-42 Republican majority. Six races remain too close to call: Democratic candidates lead in three (Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin), a Democratic-aligned independent leads in one (Maine), and Republican candidates lead in two (Pennsylvania and Nevada). If current leads hold, the balance of power will be a 54-46 majority for the Republicans. This is a low-confidence estimate; some of these races are extremely close and current leads might not hold.
  • Neither party has yet obtained a U.S. House majority, but Republicans are ahead. It now sits at 198-180 for the Republicans with fifty-seven races too close to call. The Republican Party is likely to maintain a majority, which would give the party control of the presidency and both houses of Congress, but this, too, is a low confidence estimate.
• 12:42 p.m.: So how did the “third party” and independent candidates do?
  • Votes are still being counted so the numbers below could change, but as of right now:
    • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) is in third place with about 0.43%. (Kennedy dropped out of the race in August but remained on the ballot in some states.)
    • Jill Stein (G) is in fourth place with about 0.42%.
    • Chase Oliver (L) is in fifth place with about 0.40%.
    • Write-in candidates (combined) are in sixth place with about 0.20%.
    • No other candidates received more than 0.10%.
  • All “third party,” independent, and write-in candidates combined earned about 1.66%.
  • I hope this is a wake-up call for the Libertarians . . . when you’re losing to the Green Party and a guy who wasn’t even running anymore, you’re doing something wrong!
• 1:58 p.m.: According to media reports, Harris called Trump this afternoon to concede the race. She reportedly congratulated him on his win while emphasizing the importance of the peaceful transfer of power. Harris will address the nation at 4:00 p.m.
• 2:14 p.m.: Michigan and Nevada are now called for Trump, which leaves only Arizona too close to call. Trump maintains a lead there and is likely to win, but there are enough ballots outstanding that Harris could close the gap. And, to my pleasant surprise, all Virginia precincts are reported and only post-election absentee ballots are still outstanding. Ballots received by mid-day Friday with a postmark on or before election day will be counted.
• 4:34 p.m.: Harris is speaking at Howard University in Washington, D.C., to concede the race. She struck a unifying tone, called on her supporters to accept the results, and promised to work with Trump on a peaceful transfer of power. She also promised to continue fighting for her political beliefs, and urged her supporters not to despair.
• 7:03 p.m.: Media reports indicate that Eugene Vindman (D) has been elected to represent Virginia’s 7th District in the U.S. House of Representatives. Eugene Vindman’s twin brother Alex Vindman accused then-President Donald Trump (R) of soliciting election interference from Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump and Zelenskyy denied the allegation, which is uncorroborated by other evidence. Trump was later acquitted in an impeachment trial. Alex’s testimony, which Eugene helped him prepare, was likely exaggerated or false. Eugene has not disavowed or corrected his brother’s claims.
• November 7, 2024, 11:51 p.m.: Thursday updates:
  • I have called Arizona for Trump; the final electoral count will be 312-226. Trump’s lead in the popular vote has narrowed somewhat, but he still has an outright majority of around 50.7% to Harris’s 47.7%.
  • The U.S. Senate stands at a 53-45 Republican majority with two seats too close to call. Democratic candidates now lead in the two remaining races, so the most likely outcome is now 53-47 for the Republicans.
  • The U.S. House now stands at 211-199 with the Republicans still in the lead, but short of a majority. Twenty-five races are still too close to call.
• November 9, 2024, 11:25 a.m.: It’s now the “weekend after,” and here’s where things stand:
  • In Virginia, absentee ballots are counted if they are postmarked on or before election day and received by noon Friday. Localities are now in the process of completing their counts and submitting their final numbers to the state. By early next week, the numbers should be very close to where they will be at certification.
  • The next Virginia State Board of Elections meeting is scheduled for Monday, November 18, at 1:00 p.m. Virginia’s results will likely be certified during that meeting.
  • The final electoral count of 312-226 stands. Decision Desk HQ agrees (and came to that conclusion before I did), but most major media outlets have not yet called Arizona for Trump. The data supports the call; Harris would have to win uncounted ballots by a margin of 64-36% to reach a tie. That’s just not going to happen.
  • The U.S. Senate now stands at a 53-46 Republican majority with one seat too close to call. I use Associated Press calls to track the Congressional balances of power; they have only the Senate race in Arizona still uncalled with the Democratic candidate in the lead. Many media outlets have not yet called Pennsylvania’s Senate race for the Republican candidate, so many are reporting 52-46 with two seats too close to call. Arizona is very likely to go to the Democrat and the most likely outcome is still a 53-47 Republican Party majority.
  • The U.S. House stands at 212-200 with Republicans leading but no party yet reaching a majority. There are twenty-three races too close to call. This is also based on Associated Press calls; Decision Desk HQ, which calls races more aggressively, has it at 216-208 for the Republicans, which is still two seats short of a majority. It is very likely the Republicans will hold their House majority.
• November 11, 2024, 2:35 p.m.: Veterans Day updates:
  • Most major media outlets have now called Arizona for Trump and agree that the final electoral count will be 312-226 for Trump.
  • The presidential popular vote has narrowed somewhat, but Trump will likely maintain his outright majority. It currently stands at about 50.4% for Trump and 48.0% for Harris.
  • The U.S. Senate is still sitting at a 53-46 Republican majority with Arizona still too close to call. It is still most likely that the Democratic candidate, who maintains a lead, will win, and the final count will be a 53-47 Republican majority.
  • The U.S. House stands at 214-204 with Republicans leading but no party yet reaching a majority. There are eighteen races too close to call. It remains very likely the Republicans will hold their majority.
• November 13, 2024, 10:45 p.m.: Updates:
  • The Associated Press has called all U.S. Senate races; it will be a 53-47 Republican majority as expected.
  • The Republican Party will maintain its majority in the U.S. House. The balance currently stands at a 218-208 Republican majority with nine seats still too close to call.
• November 15, 2024, 9:45 a.m.: It has been about a week and a half since election day. As of right now, here’s where things stand:
  • First, with regard to the federal balance of power:
    • The final electoral result is a 312-226 majority for Trump (putting aside for now the possibility of “faithless electors”).
    • I still expect the final result in the U.S. Senate to be a 53-47 majority for the Republican Party. Several media decision desks—including the Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, and Fox News—have called all races and agree. Other outlets—including Reuters, ABC, CNN, and NBC—show it at 52-47 with the Pennsylvania race still too close to call. These outlets may be waiting for a formal certification from the state.
    • The U.S. House currently stands at a 218-209 majority for the Republican Party with 8 races still too close to call. This is according to the Associated Press, with most media decision desks agreeing. Decision Desk HQ, which tends to be more aggressive making calls, lists the race at 219-212 with only 4 races too close to call.
  • Second, about the presidential popular vote:
    • It still appears that Trump won an outright majority of votes, but just barely. The numbers seem to have stabilized at around:
      • 50.02% for Donald Trump (R)
      • 48.11% for Kamala Harris (D)
      • 0.49% for Jill Stein (G)
      • 0.48% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I)
      • 0.41% for Chase Oliver (L)
      • 0.22% for write-in candidates
    • All other candidates combined received about 0.26% of the vote; this includes Claudia De la Cruz (Party for Socialism and Liberation) at 0.09%, Cornel West (I) at 0.05%, “none of these candidates” at 0.01%, and Vermin Supreme at less than 0.01%, among many others.
  • Third, where things stand in Virginia:
    • The Virginia Department of Elections reporting status page lists many jurisdictions that are not yet in the “fully reported” status. Come on, guys. Get it together.
      • Counties: Accomack, Albemarle, Arlington, Chesterfield, Frederick, Henry, Page, Richmond, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Scott, Shenandoah, Smyth, and Sussex.
      • Cities: Chesapeake, Covington, Fairfax, Fredericksburg, Hampton, Harrisonburg, Hopewell, Lynchburg, Manassas, Martinsville, Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Richmond, Waynesboro, and Williamsburg.
• November 18, 2024, 1:10 p.m.: My earlier comments about today’s Virginia State Board of Elections meeting were incorrect; the election will not be certified today. The purpose of today’s meeting is to organize the legally-required risk-limiting audits. The election is expected to be certified at the next meeting, which will be at 1:00 p.m. on Monday, December 2, 2024.
• 2:09 p.m.: Today’s updates:
  • The U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania is heading to a recount, which is probably why some media outlets still haven’t called the race. It is not possible for the outcome to change unless significant fraud or errors are discovered in the original result, or if significant fraud or errors occur during the recount.
  • The U.S. House now stands at a 218-212 majority for the Republicans with 5 races still too close to call. Of the uncalled races, Republican candidates are in the lead in 3 (AK 1st, CA 13th, and IA 1st) and Democratic candidates are in the lead in 2 (CA 45th and OH 9th). If those leads hold, the final result with be 221-214.
  • Virginia localities have made progress in finalizing their counts. The following laggards are not yet in the “fully reported” status:
    • Counties: Albemarle, Richmond, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Smyth, and Sussex
    • Cities: Richmond, Waynesboro, and Williamsburg
  • Because Virginia Senator Suhas Subramanyam (D-32nd) has been elected to represent Virginia’s 10th District in the U.S. House of Representatives, a special election will be held on January 7, 2025, to fill his senate seat for the remainder of his term. The Democratic Party has nominated Virginia Delegate Kannan Srinivasan (D-26th) and the Republican Party has nominated Tumay Harding (R). If Srinivasan wins, another special election will need to be held to fill the remainder of his term in the House of Delegates.