Scott Bradford: Off on a Tangent

Election 2023 Results (Final)

Posted
Updated
Ballot Races
Virginia Senate, 32nd
Greg Moulthrop (R):38.96%
Suhas Subramanyam (D):60.55%
Other:0.50%
Virginia House, 26th
Rafi Khaja (R):38.81%
Kannan Srinivasan (D):60.89%
Other:0.31%
Loudoun Board, Chairman
Gary Katz (R):42.57%
Sam Kroiz (I):8.36%
Phyllis Randall (D):48.65%
Other:0.42%
Loudoun Board, Dulles
Puja Khanna (D):36.73%
Matt Letourneau (R):62.86%
Other:0.41%
Loudoun Sch. Board, At-Large
Anne Donohue:53.21%
Michael Rivera:46.27%
Other:0.52%
Loudoun Sch. Board, Dulles
Melinda Mansfield:93.14%
Other:6.86%
Loudoun Treasurer
Henry Eickelberg (R):51.79%
Robin Roopnarine (D):47.77%
Other:0.44%
Loudoun Sheriff
Craig Buckley (D):46.21%
Mike Chapman (R):53.40%
Other:0.39%
Loudoun Comm. Attorney
Bob Anderson (R):49.92%
Buta Biberaj (D):49.70%
Other:0.38%
Loudoun Court Clerk
Brian Allman (I):30.94%
Gary Clemens (R):68.04%
Other:1.02%
Loudoun Revenue Comm.
Sri Amudhanar (D):41.44%
Bob Wertz (R):58.16%
Other:0.40%
Loudoun S&W Conservation
Derrick Clarke:5.73%
Johnathan Erickson:15.10%
John Flannery:21.85%
Peter Holden:20.12%
Uzma Rasheed:18.90%
Marina Schumacher:17.71%
Other:0.59%
Ballot Issues
Loudoun School Bonds
Yes:71.10%
No:28.90%
Loudoun Safety/Parks Bond
Yes:78.05%
No:21.95%
Loudoun Transp. Bonds
Yes:75.21%
No:24.79%
  • November 7, 2023, 6:30 p.m.: Off on a Tangent live election coverage begins!
    • Polls in Virginia are scheduled to close at 7:00 p.m. Anybody in line at or before that time is permitted to vote.
    • I’m providing live returns in each election I am following. I call winners using a proprietary method that incorporates official results, exit polling data, media calls, and other sources.
    • Live coverage will continue at least until all of the races I’m following are called, or 1:00 a.m. ET, whichever comes first. Occasional updates will continue until the results are certified.
    • I will also be commenting on other notable races in Virginia and on the expected balance of power in the Virginia General Assembly.
  • 7:03 p.m.: Virginia polls will begin closing now. Let the fun begin.
  • 8:21 p.m.: Results are finally trickling in, but I am not yet prepared to call any races.
  • 8:41 p.m.: Tangent call: Melinda Mansfield (D-endorsed) has been elected to represent the Dulles District on the Loudoun County School Board.
  • 8:53 p.m.: Tangent call: Incumbent Loudoun County Supervisor Matt Letourneau (R-Dulles) has been reelected.
  • 9:00 p.m.: Tangent call: The three Loudoun County bond referendums—for schools, for public safety and parks, and for transportation—have all passed.
  • 9:06 p.m.: Tangent call: Incumbent Loudoun County Circuit Court Clerk Gary Clemens (R) has been reelected.
  • 9:11 p.m.: Tangent call: Virginia Delegate Suhas Subramanyam (D-87th) has been elected to represent the 32nd District in the Virginia Senate.
  • 9:15 p.m.: Tangent call: Kannan Srinivasan (D) has been elected to represent the 26th District in the Virginia House of Delegates.
  • 9:23 p.m.: Tangent call: Incumbent Loudoun County Revenue Commissioner Bob Wertz (R) has been reelected.
  • 10:24 p.m.: A bit of an oddity in the Virginia Department of Elections results for Loudoun County. According to the state, Loudoun County has 315,285 ballots cast out of 293,478 registered voters . . . which would be turnout of over 107%! Obviously that is wrong. This is a reporting error on the website, not an indication of fraud. The actual results in county-wide races show roughly 140,000 votes, which would put turnout around 48% and aligns closely with the numbers being reported by county officials.
  • 10:33 p.m.: Media reports indicate that Loudoun County School Board Member Atoosa Reaser (Algonkian) has been elected as a Democrat to represent the 27th District in the Virginia House of Delegates. Reaser was complicit in COVID-19 closures, sexual assault coverups, and numerous other debacles over the last four years. She should never again hold a position of public trust. Shame on her, shame on the Democratic Party, and shame on the voters of the 27th District.
  • 10:57 p.m.: Media reports indicate that incumbent Virginia Delegate Matt Fariss (R-59th), who was running to represent the new 51st District as an independent, has been defeated by former Campbell County Supervisor Eric Zehr (R-Rustburg). Fariss is accused of intentionally running his car into a woman he was dating during an apparent road-rage incident. The voters of the 51st District made the right choice.
  • 11:15 p.m.: Tangent call: Incumbent Loudoun County Sheriff Mike Chapman (R) has been reelected.
  • 11:19 p.m.: Tangent call: Henry Eickelberg (R) has been elected Loudoun County Treasurer.
  • 11:25 p.m.: Tangent call: Incumbent Loudoun County Board of Supervisors Chairman Phyllis Randall (D) has been reelected.
  • 11:29 p.m.: Major media outlets are reporting that the Democratic Party will maintain its majority in the Virginia Senate.
  • 11:35 p.m.: Tangent call: Anne Donohue (D-endorsed) has been elected to the at-large seat on the Loudoun County School Board.
  • November 8, 2023, 12:47 a.m.: Here’s where we stand:
    • Major media earlier reported that the Democratic Party will maintain their majority in the Virginia Senate. They are now reporting that the Democratic Party has won a majority in the Virginia House of Delegates as well.
    • All early voting and election-day precincts are reported for all Loudoun County races. Any absentee ballots postmarked on or before election day are accepted until noon on Friday, and provisional ballots must be evaluated and counted within one week of the election.
    • Two of the races I’m following are still too close to call: the Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney race and the Loudoun Soil and Water Conservation District Board of Directors race.
    • In the commonwealth’s attorney race, former Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney Bob Anderson (R) maintains a narrow lead over incumbent Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney Buta Biberaj (D). The margin stands at less than one percent, so the remaining absentee and provisional ballots could easily shift the result. I cannot make a call until the remaining ballots are counted.
    • In the conservation board race, incumbent member John Flannery (D-endorsed), Peter Holden (D-endorsed), and Uzma Rasheed (D-endorsed) are in the lead in this three-seat race. It is possible, but unlikely, that incumbent member Marina Schumacher could gain enough votes from remaining absentee and provisional ballots to move ahead of Rasheed, so I cannot make a formal call until the remaining ballots are counted.
    • This concludes my live coverage for the evening. I will continue posting updates as time permits until the final results are certified.
  • 7:51 a.m.: Media reports indicate that incumbent Loudoun County School Board Member Erika Ogedegbe (Leesburg, D-endorsed) has been defeated by Lauren Shernoff (R-endorsed). Ogedegbe was complicit in the school sexual assault coverups over the last year. She should never again hold a position of public trust. The voters of the Leesburg District made the right choice.
  • 1:07 p.m.: Media reports indicate that incumbent Loudoun County School Board Member Harris Mahedavi (Ashburn, D-endorsed) has been defeated by Deana Griffiths (R-endorsed). Mahedavi was complicit in COVID-19 closures, sexual assault coverups, and numerous other debacles over the last four years. He should never again hold a position of public trust. The voters of the Ashburn District made the right choice.
  • 5:34 p.m.: Media reports indicate that Susanna Gibson (D) has been defeated by David Owen (R) in the 57th District race in the Virginia House of Delegates. Gibson falsely accused her political opponents of “an illegal invasion” of her privacy and claimed they were “willing to commit a sex crime” to “silence women” after pornographic videos Gibson and her husband voluntarily posted on the Internet were discovered and publicized. False accusations like this can destroy people’s lives, and they make it more difficult for actual victims to get justice. The voters of the 57th District made the right choice.
  • 8:07 p.m.: Quick review of where we stand:
    • The Democratic Party will have a slim 21-19 majority in the Virginia Senate. This is a net loss of one seat for the Democrats and leaves them with the narrowest possible majority.
    • The Democratic Party will gain a majority in the Virginia House of Delegates. The balance of power currently stands at 51-48, with one race—the 82nd District—still too close to call. The Republican candidate holds a narrow lead there, so the most likely outcome is a 51-49 majority for the Democrats, which would be a net gain of three seats and leave them with the narrowest possible majority. A less likely (but possible) outcome would be a stronger 52-48 majority for the Democrats.
    • The Democratic Party will have a 7-2 majority on the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors, a net gain of one seat.
    • Candidates endorsed by the Democratic Party will have a 6-3 majority on the Loudoun County School Board. Individual seats flipped, but the changes canceled each other out and the balance of power did not change.
    • Two incumbent members of the school board ran for reelection despite having been complicit in the sex assault coverups and other debacles. Both were defeated. Good riddance to Harris Mahedavi (Ashburn, D-endorsed) and Erika Ogedegbe (Leesburg, D-endorsed). Unfortunately, another complicit member—Atoosa Reaser (Algonkian)—was elected as a Democrat to the 27th District seat in the House of Delegates. Shameful.
  • 8:12 p.m.: The only important Loudoun County race not yet called is the commonwealth’s attorney race. Because of the narrow margin, it will remain un-called until post-election absentee and provisional ballots are counted, which will be no sooner than Friday afternoon.
  • November 9, 2023, 11:13 a.m.: In the Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney race, former Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney Bob Anderson (R) declared victory yesterday, stating that “there is no current path to victory” for his opponent. Incumbent Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney Buta Biberaj (D) has not conceded.
    • Anderson is in the lead by 1,020 votes as of this writing out of 133,157 votes counted. Anderson has about 50.19% of the vote and Biberaj has 49.43%; the margin is only 0.76%.
    • Absentee ballots postmarked on or before election day will be counted if received before noon tomorrow (Friday). Provisional ballots must be checked, and the valid ones counted, on or before next Tuesday.
    • Last year, between 2 and 4% of votes in any given race were post-election absentee and provisional votes. Thus, we can estimate that there are between about 2,600 and 5,300 votes left to count. If the number of post-election absentee and provisional ballots is on the high end (i.e., we use the 5,300 number), and if Biberaj wins 60% of those remaining ballots, she could close the gap.
    • For whatever reason, Biberaj performed much better with pre-election absentee voters than with in-person voters. Among early in-person voters, Anderson won by a microscopic margin of 0.33%. Among election-day voters, Anderson came out ahead by 4.64%. But among pre-election absentee voters, Biberaj won by a whopping 21.50% margin . . . about 60.70% of the vote.
    • It is likely that the provisional ballots will fall roughly in line with in-person votes, and post-election absentee ballots will fall roughly in line with pre-election absentee ballots. That means it is very unlikely that Biberaj will be able to catch Anderson. But it is not impossible. Thus, I cannot call the race, and Anderson’s declaration of victory is premature.
    • I expect that Biberaj will narrow the gap as post-election absentee and provisional votes are counted, but she is unlikely to pull ahead and Anderson is very likely to be elected. Because the margin will likely be even smaller than the current 0.76% number, the race may be subject to recounts and challenges.
  • November 10, 2023, 8:56 p.m.: Loudoun County has not yet reported its post-election absentee or provisional ballots. I will not be able to call the Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney or Loudoun Soil & Water Conservation District Board of Directors races until those numbers are reported. I suspect we won’t see any updates until Monday.
  • November 13, 2023, 9:40 a.m.: I assume things are running a little bit behind due to the Veterans Day state and local holiday on Friday. Loudoun County has not yet reported any post-election absentee or provisional ballots, so I am not able to call either of the two open races, or give a final number for the balance of power in the Virginia House of Delegates. I will continue monitoring (as time permits) and offer an update as soon as possible.
  • 1:12 p.m.: Early afternoon update:
    • Nestled in the middle of the page dealing with absentee voting on the Virginia Department of Elections website is this statement:
      • “If you are returning your ballot by mail, it must be postmarked on or before election day and received by your general registrar’s office by noon on the third day following the election (In the event that that day is a holiday, the deadline is moved to the following business day)” (emphasis added).
    • Thus, it appears that the deadline for receipt of post-election absentee ballots was today at noon, not last Friday. This was not clearly or consistently communicated by state or local officials.
    • Loudoun County has not yet reported any post-election absentee or provisional ballot results but I will continue to monitor as time permits.
  • November 14, 2023, 8:54 a.m.: Loudoun County’s post-election absentee and provisional ballot results still have not been posted on the state or local results websites.
    • Local media are reporting some new numbers, but it is unclear where they’re coming from. In the Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney race, local television news outlet WJLA (ABC 7 News) reports that Anderson remains ahead of Biberaj by 357 votes, and there are only 342 votes let to count.
    • If those numbers are accurate, then Anderson has won . . . but by a razor thin margin. Challenges and recounts are a possibility. Because the source of these numbers cannot be verified, I am not yet prepared to call the race, but I am increasingly confident that Anderson has won.
    • As time permits, I’ll continue monitoring the results on the state and local websites. I am cautiously optimistic that I will be able to call the remaining two open races and determine the final balance of power in the Virginia House of Delegates today.
  • 3:59 p.m.: Loudoun County has (finally!) entered provisional ballot results, but the post-election absentee ballots are still unreported. Any day now, guys!
  • 10:27 p.m.: Tangent call: Former Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney Bob Anderson (R) has been elected Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney.
  • 10:30 p.m.: Tangent call: Incumbent Director John Flannery, Peter Holden, and Uzma Rasheed have been elected to the Loudoun Soil and Water Conservation Board of Directors.
  • 10:48 p.m.: Loudoun County’s post-election absentee ballots were finally reported late this afternoon. With near-final numbers in the system, I have been able to call the last two open races I am monitoring.
    • I am especially pleased to report that incumbent Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney Buta Biberaj (D) has been defeated. Biberaj is the most dangerously incompetent public official by whom I have ever been represented. The people of Loudoun County made the right choice (but just barely).
    • Major media have not yet called the 82nd District race in the Virginia House of Delegates, but all votes have been counted and the Republican candidate maintains a razor-thin lead of 75 votes (out of over 28,500 cast). Unless that result changes, which could only happen if there are major counting errors or fraud, the balance of power in the Virginia House of Delegates will be a 51-49 majority for the Democrats.
    • I will continue to monitor as time permits until the final results are certified.
  • November 16, 2023, 10:49 a.m.: Incumbent Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney Buta Biberaj (D) conceded defeat yesterday. Because of the narrow margin, she had the right to request a state-funded recount, but she has declined to do so.
  • November 21, 2023, 8:06 a.m.: There have been no significant updates or changes, and no real drama, since last week. Here’s what’ll be happening from here on:
    • The Virginia State Board of Elections will meet on Monday, December 4 at 1:00 p.m. to certify the election results.
    • The certified numbers are normally posted on the Virginia Department of Elections website within a day or two of the certification. Once they are posted, I will verify that the results I have here on Off on a Tangent match and then mark the election closed.
    • In the House of Delegates race for the 82nd District, incumbent Delegate Kim Taylor (R-63rd) maintains a razor-thin lead of 78 votes (out of 28,542 cast). Her opponent, Kimberly Pope Adams (D), will be requesting a recount.
    • A losing candidate has the right to a recount if the certified margin of victory is less than 1%. If the margin is 0.5% or less (as it is in the 82nd District), the recount is funded by the state.
    • Because the recount cannot be requested until after results are certified, it will not even begin until the afternoon of December 4 at the earliest, and it is unclear how long the process will take. It is extremely unlikely that a recount will change the outcome without major counting errors (in the original count or the recount) or fraud.
  • December 4, 2023, 1:33 p.m.: The Virginia State Board of Election certified the results of the election in a meeting this afternoon. Final numbers should be posted to the Virginia Department of Elections website within a day or two.
    • The results posted here on Off on a Tangent will be verified and finalized according to the certified results after they are made available on the state website.
    • Kimberly Pope Adams (D), the losing candidate in the 82nd District race for the Virginia House of Delegates, is expected to request a recount. Incumbent Delegate Kim Taylor (R-63rd) won by 78 votes out of 28,542 cast. Due to the narrow margin, Pope Adams is entitled to a state-funded recount. I do not expect the result to change (unless there are major counting errors or fraud).
  • 10:35 p.m.: The 2023 election results have been updated with the final, certified numbers. This essentially concludes Off on a Tangent’s election coverage, but I will add updates regarding the outcome of the 82nd District recount.
  • December 20, 2023, 10:21 p.m.: According to a campaign announcement by Delegate Kim Taylor (R-63rd), the 82nd District recount has been completed and has confirmed her win over Kimberly Pope Adams (D).
    • The margin narrowed from 78 to 53 votes, indicating disproportionate gains for the Democratic candidate. This suspicious pattern occurs in nearly every election recount. In any case, the result has not changed.

Scott Bradford is a writer and technologist who has been putting his opinions online since 1995. He believes in three inviolable human rights: life, liberty, and property. He is a Catholic Christian who worships the trinitarian God described in the Nicene Creed. Scott is a husband, nerd, pet lover, and AMC/Jeep enthusiast with a B.S. degree in public administration from George Mason University.