Scott Bradford: Off on a Tangent

Election 2018 Results (Final)

Posted
Updated
Ballot Races
U.S. Senate, VA
Tim Kaine (D):57.00%
Corey Stewart (R):41.01%
Matt Waters (L):1.84%
Other:0.15%
U.S. House, VA-10th
Barbara Comstock (R):43.73%
Jennifer Wexton (D):56.11%
Other:0.16%
Ballot Issues
VA Flooding Tax Amend.
Yes:70.73%
No:29.27%
VA Veteran Tax Amend.
Yes:84.37%
No:15.63%
Loudoun Transp. Bonds
Yes:76.72%
No:23.28%
Loudoun School Bonds
Yes:75.39%
No:24.61%

  • November 6, 2018, 6:30 p.m.: Off on a Tangent election coverage is getting started. Stay tuned!
    • The polls in Virginia close at 7 p.m. Anybody in line at that time will be permitted to vote.
    • It usually takes about an hour for precincts to begin reporting results.
    • Off on a Tangent will be providing live returns from the Virginia Department of Elections in every election we are following. We will declare winners using our own proprietary method, which relies on official returns, exit polling (when available), and media calls.
    • Live coverage will continue until all of our followed races are called, or 1:00 a.m., with additional updates in the coming days as time permits.
  • 7:00 p.m.: Virginia polls are now closing. Anybody already in line before 7:00 p.m. will be allowed to vote. I expect results to start coming in within an hour or so.
  • 7:08 p.m.: Off on a Tangent call: Senator Tim Kaine (D) has been reelected.
  • 7:14 p.m.: The Virginia Department of Elections is already posting some results. Earlier than usual. About 0.2% of the statewide results are in.
  • 7:32 p.m.: Off on a Tangent calls: The Loudoun County Transportation Projects bond referendum has passed. The Loudoun County School Projects bond referendum has passed.
  • 7:47 p.m.: At least one major media outlet (NBC) has called the Virginia 10th District race for Jennifer Wexton (D). Although it seems likely that Wexton will win, Off on a Tangent is not yet confident enough in the result to make a call.
  • 7:51 p.m.: Off on Tangent call: The Virginia Veterans’ Tax Amendment has passed.
  • 7:55 p.m.: Off on a Tangent call: Jennifer Wexton (D) has been elected to represent Virginia’s Tenth District in the U.S. House of Representatives, defeating incumbent Representative Barbara Comstock (R-VA 10th).
  • 8:42 p.m.: Off on a Tangent call: The Virginia Flooding Tax Amendment has passed.
  • 8:44 p.m.: Jennifer Wexton (D) is delivering a victory speech. Representative Barbara Comstock (R-VA 10th) has conceded defeat and is also speaking to her supporters.
  • 8:47 p.m.: All of the races that we are following have been called, but our live coverage will continue for now and I’ll continue to comment on any major developments.
  • 9:11 p.m.: About my predictions . . .
    • I posted this on Facebook last night at about 10:00 p.m. as my prediction about tonight’s outcome: “[My gut] says mixed results . . . no big wave either way. I think that Republicans will outperform the polls on average (sort of a reverse Wilder effect, driven by Trump) . . . but it won’t cause a huge shift from the leading projections. Overall, I’m thinking Republicans keep steady or gain a seat in the Senate, and Democrats end up taking the House by a narrower margin than most are expecting.”
    • So far, it’s looking pretty much the way I thought it would. Of course a lot can still change as the evening goes on, but at the moment it’s looking like Republicans gain a seat (or maybe even two) in the Senate, and Democrats take the house but only by a few seats. We’ll see if that holds as more and more races get called.
  • 9:37 p.m.: There’s a heck of a race in Virginia’s Seventh District in the House of Representatives. With over 96% of precincts reported, only about one thousand votes separate incumbent Representative Dave Brat (R-VA 7th) and Abigail Spanberger (D) . . . out of over 315,000 ballots cast.
  • 9:53 p.m.: At least one major media outlet (Fox News) projects that the Democratic Party will win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Most outlets still consider it too close to call.
  • 10:03 p.m.: My general thesis that Republicans would outperform their polls seems to be holding, at least in Virginia. In our U.S. Senate race, the most recent poll had Prince William Board Chairman Corey Stewart (R) only pulling 36%. With over 96% of precincts reported, Stewart is sitting at over 42%. In the Tenth District race in the House of Representatives, the most recent poll had Representative Barbara Comstock (R-VA 10th) at 43%, and she’s sitting at about 45% (much less of a bump than Stewart, and less of a bump than I was expecting, but still a bump).
  • 10:19 p.m.: At least one major media outlet (ABC) now projects that the Republican Party will maintain a majority in the U.S. Senate. Here, too, most outlets are still treating it as too close to call.
  • 10:20 p.m.: According to major media reports, Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) has been reelected.
  • 10:22 p.m.: Several major media outlets are now projecting that Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has been reelected, and the Republican Party will maintain a majority in the U.S. Senate.
  • 11:01 p.m.: Representative Ron DeSantis (R-FL 6th) has been elected Governor of Florida. Mayor Andrew Gillum (Tallahassee) has conceded defeat.
  • 11:11 p.m.: Major media outlets are now largely in agreement that the Republican Party will maintain a majority in the U.S. Senate, and the Democratic Party will gain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11:38 p.m.: Some outlets are calling Virginia’s Seventh House District for challenger Abigail Spanberger (D), defeating incumbent Representative Dave Brat (R-VA 7th).
  • 11:55 p.m.: Off on a Tangent live coverage is wrapping up for the night. We will continue to provide updates as time permits in the coming days, and to finalize the results for our covered races. Thank you for tuning in!
  • November 07, 2018, 10:29 a.m.: As of this morning, here is where we stand:
    • The Virginia results are nearly complete. There is still a small handful of precincts that have not reported in all races, but I’m expecting those to slowly fill in with time.
    • In the U.S. Senate, the Republican Party will have at least a 52-45 majority. That is a net gain of at least three seats for the Republicans. Three races still too close to call. In both Arizona and Montana, the Republican candidates hold on to very narrow leads. In the Mississippi special election, no candidate reached a majority, which means that it will go to a runoff between the top two candidates.
    • In the U.S. House, the Democratic Party will have at least a 223-201 majority. That is a net gain of at least twenty-eight seats for the Democrats. Eleven races are still too close to call, but it is expected that Democrats will increase their majority as those begin to get called.
  • 4:20 p.m.: All Virginia precincts have been reported for all of the races I am following. This is impressive and unusual; typically there are a handful of laggard precincts that take up to a week to report. The Virginia Department of Elections will now canvas and double-check the numbers for errors.
  • November 08, 2018, 10:16 a.m.: Here’s where the national count is sitting now:
    • In the U.S. Senate, the Republican Party will have at least a 52-46 majority. That’s still a net gain of at least one seat for the Republicans. Montana got called for incumbent Senator Jon Tester (D-MT), after he reversed the lead that his Republican challenger had at this time yesterday. Representative Martha McSally (R-AZ 2nd) holds on to a narrow lead over Representative Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ 9th) in the Arizona Senate race. As mentioned yesterday, in Mississippi’s special election, no candidate reached a majority and it will need to go to a runoff.
    • In the U.S. House, the Democratic Party will have at least a 224-199 majority (it is unclear why some media outlets changed or un-called at least two calls they had made earlier). That’s a net gain of at least thirty seats for the Democrats. Twelve races are now considered too close to call.
  • November 09, 2018, 11:07 a.m.: This morning’s update:
    • Of course it wouldn’t be a high-profile election without Florida screwing things up. For the moment, I’m considering Governor Rick Scott (R-FL) the winner of the Florida Senate race, since it has been called by some major media, and the numbers support that call . . . but Florida Democrats have a history of corruption and shenanigans in recount efforts so it’s possible that gets reversed later on.
    • With that caveat, the U.S. Senate outcome still stands with the Republicans having at least a 52-46 majority, a net gain of at least one seat. In the Arizona race, Representative Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ 9th) has now taken a narrow lead over Representative Martha McSally (R-AZ 2nd), but it remains too close to call. The runoff in the Mississippi special election will be held on November 27.
    • In the U.S. House, the Democratic Party will have at least a 225-201 majority, a net gain of thirty seats. We’re now down to nine races that are considered too close to call.
  • November 10, 2018, 2:47 p.m.: Slowly moving toward a final conclusion. . . .
    • No changes to the Senate count. Assuming Governor Rick Scott (R-FL) remains the winner of Florida’s seat, Republicans have at least a 52-46 majority and a net gain of one seat. The Arizona race is still too close to call, and the Mississippi special election runoff will be held on November 27.
    • In the U.S. House of Representatives, the Democratic Party majority now stands at at least 228-201, a net gain of thirty-three seats. Six races remain too close to call: California’s 10th, 39th, and 45th Districts; Maine’s 2nd District; New Jersey’s 3rd District; and Utah’s 4th District.
  • November 13, 2018, 10:39 a.m.: Still inching toward the end. . . .
    • The Virginia results are near-final now. All precincts have been reported and checked. The Virginia State Board of Elections will certify the results at their meeting next Monday, November 19, and soon after I will double-check and finalize my results chart to match the certified results.
    • In the U.S. Senate, major media outlets have now called the Arizona race for Representative Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ 9th). Indications are still that Governor Rick Scott (R-FL) won in Florida, but given how close it is, and given Florida’s history of recount shenanigans, it’s still possible that will get reversed. But I’m still considering it a win for Scott at the moment, so the near-final number is Republicans with a 52-47 seat majority, and a net gain of one seat. The one outstanding seat is in the Mississippi special election, which will be decided by a runoff on November 27.
    • In the U.S. House of Representatives, the Democratic Party majority is still standing at 228-201, a net gain of thirty-three seats. The same six races remain too close to call: California’s 10th, 39th, and 45th Districts; Maine’s 2nd District; New Jersey’s 3rd District; and Utah’s 4th District.
  • November 14, 2018, 11:21 a.m.: I have corrected a misstatement in the last few updates, where I stated that Republicans had a net gain of three seats in the Senate. In fact, Republicans flipped three seats, but Democrats flipped two, so the net gain at the moment is only one seat. I apologize for the error.
  • November 15, 2018, 11:05 a.m.: The long tail, with the last few races creeping to a close.
    • In the U.S. Senate, I’m keeping it at a Republican majority of 52-47, a net gain of one seat. Florida is still . . . being Florida . . . but some major media election groups, including Decision Desk HQ, are keeping it as a call for Governor Rick Scott (R-FL) and there is little-to-no chance than an honest recount would change that. As mentioned before, there will be a runoff on November 27 to decide the outcome of the Mississippi special election and fill the last seat. I should also note that my count of forty-seven Democrats includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats—Senator Angus King (I-ME) and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
    • In the U.S. House of Representatives, the Democratic Party majority will be at least 230-201, a net gain of thirty-five seats. Only four seats remain too close to call: California’s 39th and 45th Districts; Maine’s 2nd District; and Utah’s 4th District.
  • November 16, 2018, 11:30 a.m.: Down to only two congressional races not yet called (not including the Senate special election in Mississippi, which is headed to a runoff election).
    • No changes in the U.S. Senate; still looks like it will be a Republican majority of 52-47, a net gain of one seat. This still assumes that Florida will get its act together and certify Governor Rick Scott’s (R-FL) win. The Mississippi special election is still pending a runoff at the end of the month.
    • In the U.S. House of Representatives, the Democratic Majority will be at least 232-201, a net gain of thirty-seven seats. Only two seats still remain too close to call: California’s 39th District and Utah’s 4th District.
    • The Virginia election results are expected to be certified on Monday, November 19. As soon as they are made available, I will finalize the results in the races we’re officially following on Off on a Tangent.
  • November 17, 2018, 3:43 p.m.: In the House of Representatives, the Democratic majority will be at least 233-201, a net gain of thirty-eight seats. The only seat that remains too close to call is Utah’s 4th District. There, incumbent Representative Mia Love (R-UT 4th) is holding on to a perilously narrow lead over Salt Lake City Mayor Ben McAdams (D).
  • November 19, 2018, 7:42 p.m.: Virginia’s election results have been certified by the State Board of Elections, and our results have now been updated to the final, certified numbers. There have been no changes to the national numbers; Utah’s 4th District remains the only uncalled race in the House of Representatives, but incumbent Mia Love (R-UT 4th) still holds on to a narrow lead and is likely to (eventually) be certified as the winner.
  • November 21, 2018, 12:45 a.m.: Finally ready to close this thing out . . .
    • As mentioned in my last update, the Virginia results are now certified and the results chart reflects those final numbers.
    • In the U.S. Senate, the final number is a Republican majority of 52-47, a net gain of one seat. The Mississippi special election is going to a runoff, which will be held on November 27 to determine the outcome of that race.
    • In the U.S. House of Representatives, the final number is a Democratic majority of 234-201, a net gain of thirty-nine seats. The one race that had been uncalled, Utah’s 4th District, ultimately went by a razor-thin margin to Salt Lake City Mayor Ben McAdams (D), defeating incumbent Representative Mia Love (R-UT 4th).
    • This concludes our special coverage of the 2018 elections. Thank you for tuning in!
  • November 27, 2018, 4:01 p.m.: Spoke too soon . . . there will be a couple more brief updates.
    • In Mississippi, voters are casting ballots today in a runoff to decide the winner of their special election for U.S. Senate. It seems likely that incumbent Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) will defeat challenger Mike Espy (D), which would leave the Senate with a Republican majority of 53-47, a net gain of two seats . . . although we won’t know for sure until later tonight at the soonest.
    • In the U.S. House of Representatives, California’s 21st District, which had been called by most major media outlets for incumbent Representative David Valadao (R-CA 21st), has since been “un-called.” Challenger TJ Cox (D) has moved into a narrow lead, and seems increasingly likely to win. If he does, it would change the outcome to a Democratic majority of 235-200, a net gain of forty seats.
  • November 30, 2018, 12:31 p.m.: Okay, should be able to wrap this up now.
    • In the Mississippi special election runoff, incumbent Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) did defeat challenger Mike Espy (D). That means that the final number in the U.S. Senate will be a Republican majority of 53-47, a net gain of two seats.
    • In California’s 21st District, which the major media initially called for incumbent Representative David Valadao (R-CA 21st), challenger TJ Cox (D) ended up pulling into the lead and winning. The final number in the U.S. House of Representatives will be a Democratic majority of 235-200, a net gain of forty seats.
    • This should really be the final update. Thanks (again) for tuning in.

Scott Bradford is a writer and technologist who has been putting his opinions online since 1995. He believes in three inviolable human rights: life, liberty, and property. He is a Catholic Christian who worships the trinitarian God described in the Nicene Creed. Scott is a husband, nerd, pet lover, and AMC/Jeep enthusiast with a B.S. degree in public administration from George Mason University.