Election 2016 Results and Live Blog (Final)

Election Updates

• November 8, 2016, 6:30 p.m.: Off on a Tangent election coverage is getting started. Stay tuned! The first polls will begin to close at about 7 p.m.
• 6:39 p.m.: Polls close at 7 p.m. in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia. In most states, anybody in line to vote when the polls close will be allowed to vote.
• 6:59 p.m.: Off on a Tangent makes election calls using a proprietary system that relies on a combination of media reports, exit polling data (where available), and official returns. An interesting night is about to begin.
• 7:01 p.m.: The first few state calls have been made. No big surprises so far.
• 7:20 p.m.: Starting to get some Virginia results in, but there is some kind of reporting problem with the referendums (showing precincts reported but with no results). I’m looking into it.
• 7:22 p.m.: The polls are scheduled to close at 8:30 p.m. in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia.
• 7:44 p.m.: I have fixed a bug in my processing of Virginia results, which was causing the referendums to show with zero votes. It will take about ten minutes for the results to update accordingly, but they should be good-to-go from there.
• 7:53 p.m.: Sixteen states are scheduled to close their polls at 8 p.m.: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee. The District of Columbia’s polls are also scheduled to close at 8.
• 7:55 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: The Virginia property tax amendment has passed.
• 8:04 p.m.: A bunch of calls among the 8 p.m. states, but still no big surprises. These were all states considered ‘safe’ for their respective winners.
• 8:26 p.m.: Media outlets including CNN and the Associated Press are projecting that Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) has won reelection.
• 8:29 p.m.: Arkansas is the only state with polls scheduled to close at 8:30 p.m.
• 8:33 p.m.: Media outlets are projecting that the Republican Party will maintain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
• 8:40 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: The Loudoun County public safety bond referendum has passed.
• 8:48 p.m.: For some reason, Loudoun County has not reported any data to the Virginia Department of Elections, which is why all of the county bond referendums are showing with zero votes. I am able to monitor the numbers through other channels and this reporting delay will not affect my ability to make calls.
• 8:55 p.m.: Fourteen states are scheduled to close their polls at 9 p.m.: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
• 9:07 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: The Loudoun County transportation bond referendum and the Loudoun County school bond referendum have both passed.
• 9:27 p.m.: No states are scheduled to close their polls at 9:30 p.m., so the next batch will close at 10. There are fourteen states whose polls are already closed, but are too close to call at this time. This includes most of the key ‘swing states’ in the eastern half of the country.
• 9:44 p.m.: Loudoun County is (finally!) submitting results for the local bond referendums, so the numbers on those are starting to fill out now and the results table will look less stupid.
• 9:47 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: Representative Barbara Comstock (R-VA 10th) has been reelected.
• 9:53 p.m.: Four states are scheduled to close their polls at 10 p.m.: Iowa, Montana, Nevada, and Utah. There are still thirteen states whose polls have already closed, but their results remain too close to call.
• 10:01 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: Virginia’s thirteen presidential electoral votes will go very narrowly to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D).
• 10:04 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: The Virginia worker rights amendment has failed.
• 10:07 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: The Loudoun County parks and recreation bond referendum has passed.
• 10:49 p.m.: Trump is significantly outperforming the expectations of the polls, models, and pundits. It remains to be seen whether it will be enough to turn the outcome in his favor, but it is shaping up to be a much closer race than expected.
• 10:56 p.m.: Five states are scheduled to close their polls at 11 p.m.: California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.
• 10:59 p.m.: Slowly-but-surely, the key swing states are getting called for one candidate or another. At this time, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio have gone for Trump, while Colorado and Virginia gone for Clinton.
• 11:05 p.m.: As of 11 p.m., the polls are scheduled to have been closed in every state except Alaska. Alaska’s polls are scheduled to close at 1 a.m.
• 11:24 p.m.: In 2012, Off on a Tangent projected that President Barack Obama (D) would win reelection at 11:17 p.m. This year, it’s past that time and the presidential race remains too close to call (even as all of the other races Off on a Tangent is covering have been called).
• 11:41 p.m.: Donald Trump (R) is now only sixteen electoral votes short of the presidency, having made surprising wins in Iowa and Wisconsin.
• November 09, 2016, 12:26 a.m.: The current vote spread in New Hampshire is . . . eighteen votes.
• 12:57 a.m.: One state is scheduled to close its polls at 1 a.m.: Alaska. It will be the last state to close its polls.
• 1:27 a.m.: Media reports indicate that the Republican Party will maintain a majority in the U.S. Senate.
• 1:51 a.m.: Off on a Tangent projection: Donald Trump (R) has obtained an electoral college majority of at least 277, and has been elected President of the United States. He is the first person to rise to the presidency without having previously held elective office since the election of Dwight Eisenhower (R) in 1952.
• 2:36 a.m.: The Associated Press has now called the election for Donald Trump (R).
• 2:41 a.m.: Media reports that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) has called Donald Trump (R) to concede the presidential election.
• 3:09 a.m.: Donald Trump (R) gave an acceptance speech to supporters in New York, New York, graciously congratulating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) on a hard-fought campaign, and pledging to work to unite America.
• 3:13 a.m.: I will be suspending Off on a Tangent live coverage until later in the morning. All of the races I am following have been called, but the final numbers are still coming in. There are a few Virginia precincts still outstanding, and I have not yet made calls in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. I will continue to update these (as time permits) in the coming days.
• 9:58 a.m.: I’m resuming live coverage now (as time permits). No major changes from last night. For the moment, the electoral count remains where it was.
• 10:05 a.m.: Earlier this morning, President Barack Obama (D) called President-Elect Donald Trump (R) to congratulate him on his victory and invite him to the White House to discuss the transition process on Thursday. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) will speak at 10:30 a.m., presumably to publicly concede the election.
• 10:09 a.m.: Seven Virginia precincts are still outstanding. The laggards are one precinct each in Prince William County and the cities of Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Richmond, Roanoke, and Virginia Beach.
• 10:22 a.m.: According to media exit polls, Trump did better with both black and Latino Americans than former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) did in 2012. Of course he still got only relatively small minorities of both of those racial/ethnic groups, but this information confounds analysts who assumed Trump’s rhetoric would lead to losses in those groups.
• 11:05 a.m.: Trump has also made impressive gains with union members. Looking just at Ohio, Romney won only 37% of union voters in 2012 . . . Trump won more than 50%. The national results likely won’t be as large of a jump, but he made significant gains for sure.
• 11:58 a.m.: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) spoke this morning in New York, New York, publicly conceding the election to President-Elect Donald Trump (R). She thanked her supporters for their efforts and encouraged them to continue fighting for their values through the political process.
• 12:21 p.m.: Preliminary popular vote results show that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) is ahead with about 47.8%. President-Elect Donald Trump (R) is slightly behind with 47.6%. If this holds, it would be the first time since the divisive 2000 election that the winner of the popular vote did not win in the Electoral College.
• 12:23 p.m.: Regarding third-party candidates, the preliminary popular vote results have former Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM) on the Libertarian ticket at 3.2%, Doctor Jill Stein (G) at 0.9%, and Evan McMullin (I) at 0.3%.
• 12:32 p.m.: Former Governor Gary Johnson’s (R-NM) performance will set records for the Libertarian Party, and yet still badly under-performed versus his poll numbers. Off on a Tangent had categorized Johnson as a “major candidate” because I believed it was likely that he would earn five percent of the popular vote.
• 1:15 p.m.: President-Elect Donald Trump (R) has won Michigan’s sixteen electoral votes, the first Republican to win the state since President George H.W. Bush (R) in 1988.
• 3:42 p.m.: The only state still un-called by Off on a Tangent is New Hampshire, where former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) holds a narrow but steady lead over President-Elect Donald Trump (R). Assuming that Clinton takes New Hampshire, which seems likely, the final electoral tally will be 306-232.
• 4:01 p.m.: We still have five Virginia precincts outstanding. The laggards are one precinct each in Prince William County and the cities of Newport News, Norfolk, Richmond, and Virginia Beach.
• 10:10 p.m.: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) will hold her narrow lead in New Hampshire, winning that state’s four electoral votes and completing the electoral map. Off on a Tangent can now project that the final result will be 306 electors for President-Elect Donald Trump (R) and 232 for Clinton.
• 10:16 p.m.: Well over twenty-four hours after the polls closed, we are still waiting for results from four Virginia precincts. The remaining laggards are one precinct each from Prince William County and the cities of Norfolk, Richmond, and Virginia Beach. I’m suspending coverage for the evening, but will pick up again tomorrow and hopefully I’ll be able to close this thing out soon.
• November 10, 2016, 12:50 p.m.: The same four Virginia precincts are still outstanding. In the mean time, here are the latest numbers from the presidential popular vote. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) remains in the lead with 47.8% of the vote, followed closely by President-Elect Donald Trump (R) with 47.6%. Among the third-parties, former Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM) on the Libertarian ticket is at about 3.3%, Doctor Jill Stein (G) is at 1.0%, and Evan McMullin (I) is at about 0.3%.
• 2:36 p.m.: We’re down to only two Virginia precincts outstanding: one each in the cities of Norfolk and Richmond.
• November 11, 2016, 12:41 p.m.: Still waiting for those last two precincts. Any day now, Norfolk and Richmond!
• November 14, 2016, 12:28 p.m.: Off on a Tangent will be returning to ‘regular programming’ mode. This post will continue to be updated periodically until all of the numbers are finalized.
• November 23, 2016, 12:09 p.m.: The results are essentially final at this point, although there are some oddities in the results for the two Virginia constitutional amendment referendums. Seven precincts across the state are showing zero votes (for ‘yes’, ‘no’, or both), which seems likely to be an error. I have notified the Virginia Department of Elections and will update with any response I receive.
• January 11, 2017, 10:01 p.m.: I have updated the numbers with the final, certified results and am marking them as final. Thanks for tuning in!