Scott Bradford: Off on a Tangent

Election 2010: Results (Final)

Posted
Updated

Ballot Races
U.S. House, VA-10th
Jeff Barnett (D):34.81%
Bill Redpath (L):2.21%
Frank Wolf (R):62.87%
Other:0.11%
Ballot Issues
Virginia Tax Amendment #1
Yes:75.92%
No:24.08%
Virginia Tax Amendment #2
Yes:82.41%
No:17.59%
Virginia Rainy Day Amend.
Yes:51.15%
No:48.85%
Loudoun School Bonds
Yes:54.52%
No:45.48%

News Alerts & Statements:
Stay tuned for important updates as they occur (most recent at the top).

  • My last minute predictions (slightly modified from last week):
    • U.S. Senate: Republicans gain 8 seats; Democrats maintain a 51/49 majority.
    • U.S. House of Representatives: Republicans gain 62 seats for a 240/195 majority.
  • 11/02/2010 6:00 p.m.: Off on a Tangent live coverage is getting underway and will continue at least until midnight. Additional updates will be made in the coming day(s) as time permits until all of the final numbers are available. Once coverage terminates, this post will be marked ‘Final.’
  • 11/02/2010 7:00 p.m.: CNN has made its first call of the night, projecting that Rand Paul (R)—son of Representative Ron Paul (R-TX 14th)—has been elected Senator from Kentucky.
  • 11/02/2010 8:00 p.m.: CNN projects Chris Coons (D) wins in Delaware, Marco Rubio (R) wins in Florida for U.S. Senate.
  • 11/02/2010 8:05pm: Off on a Tangent projects that Representative Frank Wolf (R) has won reelection for Virginia’s 10th District in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11/02/2010 8:07pm: Off on a Tangent projects that the Virginia constitutional amendment presented on the ballot as Question #2 (establishing a permanent tax exemption for disabled military veterans) has passed.
  • 11/02/2010 8:20 p.m.: Off on a Tangent projects that the Virginia constitutional amendment presented on the ballot as Question #1 (devolving authority over tax exemptions for the elderly & disabled to localities) has passed.
  • 11/02/2010 8:50 p.m.: CNN and other media are projecting that Robert Hurt (R) has defeated incumbent Representative Tom Perriello (D) in Virginia’s 5th District in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11/02/2010 9:15pm: CNN projects the Republican Party will gain at least 50 seats and become the majority party in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11/02/2010 10:36pm: Off on a Tangent projects that the Loudoun County school bond referendum has passed with approx. 55 percent of the vote, a surprisingly narrow margin (bond referendums traditionally pass with over 60 percent of the vote).
  • 11/02/2010 10:42pm: CNN is projecting that Republicans will see a net-gain of more than 54 seats in the House of Representatives, making tonight’s win larger than the 1994 ‘Republican Revolution’ in the House.
  • 11/02/2010 10:52pm: NBC, Reuters, and others project that Senator Russ Feingold (D), who has served as U.S. Senator from Wisconsin since 1993, has lost his reelection bid to Ron Johnson (R).
  • 11/02/2010 11:15pm: Local media report that Maryland’s Governor O’Malley (D) has won reelection, defeating former Governor Bob Ehrlich (R). Vincent Gray (D) has been formally elected mayor of Washington, DC. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton has been reelected as Washington, DC’s non-voting delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11/02/2010 11:53pm: Off on a Tangent projects that the Virginia constitutional amendment presented on the ballot as Question #3 (regarding the permissible size of the ‘rainy day fund’) has passed narrowly. This is the final race being followed directly by Off on a Tangent. General election coverage will continue.
  • 11/02/2010 11:57pm: CNN is projecting that the Democratic Party will maintain their U.S. Senate majority, with Republicans falling short of the necessary 51 seats.
  • 11/02/2010 11:58pm: The Washington Post and other media project that Senator Barbara Boxer (D) will win reelection as U.S. Senator from California, defeating challenger Carly Fiorina (R).
  • 11/03/2010 12:35am: CNN projects Mark Kirk (R) has won election as U.S. Senator from Illinois, defeating Alexi Giannoulias (D) for the seat formerly held by President Barack Obama (D).
  • 11/03/2010 12:39am: CNN projects Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) has been reelected as U.S. Senator from Nevada, defeating challenger Sharron Angle (R).
  • 11/03/2010 12:50 p.m.: CNN is now projecting that the Republican Party will see a net-gain of at least 60 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 11/03/2010 1:00 a.m.: Off on a Tangent live coverage is ending for the night. The U.S. Senate currently stands at 51/46 (Democratic majority) with Colorado, Washington, and Alaska still outstanding. The House of Representatives stands at 220/146 (Republican majority) with 69 seats still too close to call. Coverage will continue (as time permits) beginning tomorrow morning and continuing until all races are settled.
  • 11/03/2010 10:52am: The U.S. Senate still stands at 51/46 (Democratic majority) with Colorado, Washington, and Alaska still outstanding. The House of Representatives now stands at 240/185 (Republican majority) with 10 seats still outstanding.
  • 11/04/2010 10:40 a.m.: Representative Gerry Connolly (D) has narrowly won reelection to the U.S. House of Representatives from Virginia’s 11th District, defeating challenger Keith Fimian (R). While no major media outlet has called the race, and Fimian has not yet conceded, Off on a Tangent believes the outstanding provisional ballots will not be sufficient to close the approx. 900 vote margin.
  • 11/04/2010 2:00 p.m.: Reports are slowing to a trickle at this point, but I’m not quite ready to conclude coverage. Here’s where we stand:
    • There are still five precincts outstanding in Virginia, so the above results for officially-covered Off on a Tangent races are not completely final yet.
    • Senator Murkowski (R) likely wins as a write-in independent in Alaska (she will almost definitely caucus with the Republicans and, as such, I’m counting her as a Republican win).
    • Murray (D) likely wins in Washington, beating Rossi (R). This isn’t a sure thing yet and a lot of returns are still outstanding.
    • Assuming Murkowski and Murray win, the Senate stands at 53/47 (Democratic majority). I had predicted Republicans winning two more seats, but they narrowly lost in Colorado and Nevada. I correctly predicted the Democrats maintaining their majority.
    • The House of Representatives still stands at 239/187 (Republican majority) with nine seats outstanding. This is very close to my 240/195 prediction.
  • 11/05/2010 2:50 p.m.: We are inching closer to a conclusion of the 2010 ‘midterm’ elections.
    • Virginia Results: Five precincts have yet to report properly in Virginia. I consider this to be unacceptable. One is in Craig County, one is in Pittsylvania County, and three are in my former home-town of Bedford City.
    • U.S. Senate: Murray (D) has won Washington. Murkowski (R) has likely won Alaska as a write-in independent, with Miller (R) leading comfortably among names actually on the ballot. Alaska definitely stays Republican either way. The U.S. Senate balance of power will be 53/47 with a Democratic majority.
    • U.S. House of Representatives: After reviewing outstanding races, I’m confident in projecting a U.S. House balance of power at 243/192 with a Republican majority. Two of those races (currently projected for Democrats; see below) are very, very close and could possibly shift the balance up-to two more seats for the Republicans (245/190).
    • Media outlets are being unnecessarily reticent in making calls, and still report 9 seats outstanding in the House.
      • Four of them have clear victors and the networks should make the calls already: AZ 8th for Democrats, CA twentieth for Republicans, VA 11th for Democrats, WA 2nd for Democrats.
      • Three of them have likely victors and networks should consider calling them: IL 8th for Republicans, NY 25th for Republicans, TX 27th for Republicans.
      • Only two are legitimately ‘too close to call’ at this time: CA 11th and KY 6th, both with very narrow Democratic leads.
  • 11/06/2010 7:45pm: I’m ending my continuing coverage at this time. Here’s where we stand:
    • The Virginia State Board of Elections has made no statement on why four precincts have yet to report some of their results (or why the total number of precincts dropped from 2,520 to 2,519). These outstanding precincts will not be enough to materially change any results in any of the followed races, so rather than waiting indefinitely I’m going to let the above results stand as follows.
    • As mentioned before, the U.S. Senate balance of power will be 53/47 with a Democratic majority. The only outstanding item is a definitive determination of whether Senator Murkowski (R) wins reelection in Alaska as a write-in independent (most likely) or whether Joe Miller (R) wins. Both are Republicans, so either outcome will not effect the balance of power.
    • I still expect that the U.S House of Representatives balance of power will be 243/192 with a Republican majority. There are two races (currently in the Democratic column) that are legitimately too close to call, so there is a chance that this will shift a bit in the Republicans’ favor to 244/191 or 245/190, but 243/192 is currently the most likely outcome.

Scott Bradford is a writer and technologist who has been putting his opinions online since 1995. He believes in three inviolable human rights: life, liberty, and property. He is a Catholic Christian who worships the trinitarian God described in the Nicene Creed. Scott is a husband, nerd, pet lover, and AMC/Jeep enthusiast with a B.S. degree in public administration from George Mason University.