- November 5, 2024, 6:30 p.m.: Off on a Tangent live election coverage is starting!
- Polls in Virginia are scheduled to close at 7:00 p.m. ET; anybody in line by then can vote.
- I call winners using a proprietary method that incorporates official returns, exit poll data, media calls, and other sources. In presidential races, I use a variant of this method to call each state, and call the race when a candidate reaches a 270-elector majority.
- Live returns for the races I’m following are based on Virginia Department of Elections data feeds. I also monitor various secondary sources, so it is sometimes possible to call a race before returns are displayed.
- My live coverage will continue at least until all the races I’m following have been called, or 1:00 a.m., whichever comes first. Updates will continue as time permits until the Virginia results certified.
- 7:02 p.m.: Polls are closing in Virginia and other states. Let the fun begin.
- 7:36 p.m.: Several states are called (no surprises), and Virginia results are starting to trickle in.
- 7:55 p.m.: Polls in sixteen states and the District of Columbia close at 8:00 p.m., so there’s a good chance we’ll have a bunch of calls coming in soon. So far, no “swing states” can be called.
- 8:26 p.m.: Tangent call: The Virginia Property Tax Amendment has passed.
- 8:40 p.m.: Tangent call: The Loudoun County Public Safety Bond Referendum has passed.
- 8:44 p.m.: Tangent call: The Loudoun County Transportation Bond Referendum has passed.
- 8:53 p.m.: Another big batch of states’ polls close at 9:00 p.m. and some more calls should be coming. Several “swing states” whose polls already closed remain too close to call.
- 8:55 p.m.: Tangent call: The Loudoun County Parks and Recreation Bond Referendum has passed.
- 9:10 p.m.: Tangent call: The Loudoun County School Bond Referendum has passed.
- 10:28 p.m.: Tangent call: Virginia Senator Suhas Subramanyam (D-32nd) has been elected to represent Virginia’s 10th District in the U.S. House of Representatives.
- 10:38 p.m.: Tangent call: Incumbent Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) has been reelected.
- 11:50 p.m.: Polls are closed in all states except Alaska and Hawaii. Here’s where we stand right now:
- Former President Donald Trump (R) appears to be outperforming his polling, and election night predictors like the New York Times “needle” and public betting markets now consider it likely (but not guaranteed) that Trump will defeat Vice President Kamala Harris (D).
- In the U.S. Senate, the Republican Party is all-but certain to reach at least a 50/50 tie, and is very likely to win an outright majority of at least 51 seats.
- It is not yet clear which party will win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
- 11:53 p.m.: Tangent call: Vice President Kamala Harris (D) has won Virginia’s presidential ballot and will be awarded the state’s thirteen electoral votes.
- November 6, 2024, 1:13 a.m.: The Republican Party will gain an outright majority of at least 51 seats in the U.S. Senate.
- 1:24 a.m.: Decision Desk HQ is now projecting a Trump win, and the New York Times “needle” now estimates Trump has a greater than 95% chance of winning. Off on a Tangent cannot yet project a winner, but I agree it is likely Trump will win.
- 1:48 a.m.: Fox News is the first major television news outlet to project a Trump win.
- 2:09 a.m.: With a win in Pennsylvania, Trump is now on the verge of victory with 267 electors. If he wins any one of the remaining uncalled states, he will reach the necessary 270-elector majority.
- 2:24 a.m.: Tangent call: Former President Donald Trump (R) has been elected President of the United States with an electoral majority of at least 277. Trump will be only the second president to be elected to two non-consecutive terms.
- 2:31 a.m.: Trump is addressing supporters from his campaign headquarters in West Palm Beach, Florida. He declared victory and thanked the American people for their votes and promised to “fight for you, and your family, and your future.”
- 2:36 a.m.: The new Vice President-elect of the United States, J.D. Vance (R), is younger than me. I don’t know how I feel about that.
- 2:56 a.m.: Harris will not address her supporters this evening, and has not conceded defeat. Decision Desk HQ and Fox News called the race for Trump, but most other media outlets, including the Associated Press, still have him just short of the necessary 270-elector majority.
- 3:07 a.m.: Trump appears to have made significant gains since the last election with black and Latino voters, especially among black and Latino men. Exit polling seems to indicate that Trump nearly doubled his share of the black vote in some states.
- 3:20 a.m.: All the races I’m following are now called and I am ending my live coverage for the evening. I will continue to update this post with election updates as time permits until the results are certified, so keep checking back! A few notes:
- Four states are still too-close-to-call: Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada. Trump is currently ahead in all four of them. If his leads hold, the electoral count will be 312-226.
- The U.S. Senate stands at 51-42 for the Republicans, with seven seats still too close to call. Republican candidates lead in six of those seven races, suggesting a possible outcome of 57-43 for the Republicans.
- The U.S. House stands at 192-173 for the Republicans with seventy seats still too close to call. Republicans are outperforming the polls and are favored to maintain a majority, but Democrats could still come out ahead.
- Thanks for tuning in!
- 10:49 a.m.: Morning updates:
- I’ve called Alaska for Trump, which puts his electoral count at 280 to Harris’s 226. Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada are still too close to call, but Trump is leading in all three. Those leads are likely to hold, so I think the final result will probably be 312-226.
- Trump appears to have won an outright majority of the popular vote—around 51% to Harris’s 48%. We do not elect presidents by popular vote, but it can serve as a rough indicator of public sentiment. A popular vote win tends to strengthen a president’s political “mandate,” while a loss tends to weaken it.
- Most major media outlets called the race for Trump overnight, including the Associated Press. Harris has apparently not yet called Trump to concede, but will reportedly do so soon. She will address the nation later today.
- The U.S. Senate is now at a 52-42 Republican majority. Six races remain too close to call: Democratic candidates lead in three (Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin), a Democratic-aligned independent leads in one (Maine), and Republican candidates lead in two (Pennsylvania and Nevada). If current leads hold, the balance of power will be a 54-46 majority for the Republicans. This is a low-confidence estimate; some of these races are extremely close and current leads might not hold.
- Neither party has yet obtained a U.S. House majority, but Republicans are ahead. It now sits at 198-180 for the Republicans with fifty-seven races too close to call. The Republican Party is likely to maintain a majority, which would give the party control of the presidency and both houses of Congress, but this, too, is a low confidence estimate.
- 12:42 p.m.: So how did the “third party” and independent candidates do?
- Votes are still being counted so the numbers below could change, but as of right now:
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) is in third place with about 0.43%. (Kennedy dropped out of the race in August but remained on the ballot in some states.)
- Jill Stein (G) is in fourth place with about 0.42%.
- Chase Oliver (L) is in fifth place with about 0.40%.
- Write-in candidates (combined) are in sixth place with about 0.20%.
- No other candidates received more than 0.10%.
- All “third party,” independent, and write-in candidates combined earned about 1.66%.
- I hope this is a wake-up call for the Libertarians . . . when you’re losing to the Green Party and a guy who wasn’t even running anymore, you’re doing something wrong!
- Votes are still being counted so the numbers below could change, but as of right now:
- 1:58 p.m.: According to media reports, Harris called Trump this afternoon to concede the race. She reportedly congratulated him on his win while emphasizing the importance of the peaceful transfer of power. Harris will address the nation at 4:00 p.m.
- 2:14 p.m.: Michigan and Nevada are now called for Trump, which leaves only Arizona too close to call. Trump maintains a lead there and is likely to win, but there are enough ballots outstanding that Harris could close the gap. And, to my pleasant surprise, all Virginia precincts are reported and only post-election absentee ballots are still outstanding. Ballots received by mid-day Friday with a postmark on or before election day will be counted.
- 4:34 p.m.: Harris is speaking at Howard University in Washington, D.C., to concede the race. She struck a unifying tone, called on her supporters to accept the results, and promised to work with Trump on a peaceful transfer of power. She also promised to continue fighting for her political beliefs, and urged her supporters not to despair.
- 7:03 p.m.: Media reports indicate that Eugene Vindman (D) has been elected to represent Virginia’s 7th District in the U.S. House of Representatives. Eugene Vindman’s twin brother Alex Vindman accused then-President Donald Trump (R) of soliciting election interference from Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump and Zelenskyy denied the allegation, which is uncorroborated by other evidence. Trump was later acquitted in an impeachment trial. Alex’s testimony, which Eugene helped him prepare, was likely exaggerated or false. Eugene has not disavowed or corrected his brother’s claims.
Election Day: Final Thoughts
Another year, another election. Across America, voters are casting ballots for who will be the next President of the United States, thirty-three seats in the U.S. Senate, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, and various state and local offices and referendums.
Then we wait to see who wins and loses.
The presidential election this year is fraught and unusual. People are fired up. Many Trump supporters believe the 2020 election was stolen from him (it wasn’t) and, if he loses again, they’re likely to engage in angry protests and riots like what we saw in January 2021. Many Harris supporters believe Trump is “literally Hitler” and, if he wins, they are equally likely to engage in angry protests and riots. I hope we can keep cool heads, but I’m expecting the worst. I hope I’m wrong.
Let’s stay calm. Let’s be kind to one another. Let’s accept whatever happens with grace and respect. In other words, let’s act like adults.
Off on a Tangent live election night coverage will begin at 6:30 p.m. ET and continue at least until all the races I’m following are called or 1:00 a.m., whichever comes first. Updates will continue (as time permits) as significant events occur until the Virginia State Board of Elections certifies the state results in December.
President of the United States, 2024
In the race for President of the United States, Vice President Kamala Harris (D) faces former President Donald Trump (R). The Virginia ballot also includes two minor candidates—Chase Oliver (L) and Jill Stein (G). Two nonviable candidates and one withdrawn candidate are excluded from consideration.
The United States has a unique system for electing presidents. The citizens of the fifty states and the District of Columbia vote for electors pledged to a particular candidate, and those electors choose the president. Each state has the same number of electors as it has representatives in the two houses of Congress combined. The District of Columbia also has three electors.
Most states and the District of Columbia award all their electors as a “slate” to the candidate who won the most votes in the state or district. Maine and Nebraska allot two of their electors to the statewide winner and divide the rest based on who wins the most votes in each congressional district.
There are 538 electors; a candidate must win an outright majority of at least 270 to win. If no candidate wins an electoral majority, the House of Representatives chooses a president by a ‘majority of the states’ vote. Presidents are elected to four-year terms and may serve up-to two terms.
Solar Cause and Effect
In each presidential election, I score the candidates according to their level of support for the Bill of Rights. Points are awarded based on the answers to weighted questions about how the candidates interpret and apply its provisions. They receive a score out of ten for each amendment, and a cumulative score out of one hundred for the entire Bill of Rights.
Because the President of the United States swears to protect and defend the constitution, he or she must understand it and comply with it. The only acceptable score is A+ (100%).
When possible, I base scores on a candidate’s public statements, campaign materials, and political record. If this information is not available, I attempt to infer a position from the candidate’s political party by looking at its platform and its prominent members’ votes and statements on the issue. If even this is not available, I make my “best guess.” You can contact me to complain about a rating if you want, but please provide evidence supporting your argument.
Scott Bradford is a writer and technologist who has been putting his opinions online since 1995. He believes in three inviolable human rights: life, liberty, and property. He is a Catholic Christian who worships the trinitarian God described in the Nicene Creed. Scott is a husband, nerd, pet lover, and AMC/Jeep enthusiast with a B.S. degree in public administration from George Mason University.